Results from a 100-member ensemble of Greenland Ice Sheet model runs, 125 ka BP to 3500 AD

Patrick Applegate

Output from 100 model runs with the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS by Ralf Greve. Each run was forced with the same temperature and sea level curves, but had different model parameter values. The variable model parameters included those that control ice flow, basal sliding, and surface melting. The results indicate a strong variability among model runs for future time slices, even after the runs that do not produce a reasonable modern ice volume are removed from the ensemble.

References

Applegate, P. J., Kirchner, N., Stone, E. J., Keller, K., and Greve, R., 2012: An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior, The Cryosphere, 6, 589-606. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-589-2012