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PhD Seminar | Sebastian Scher

Selective Ensemble Mean Technique for Severe Mid-latitude Storms

by Sebastian Scher, PhD student
Department of Metereology | MISU, Stcokholm University, Sweden

Time: Thursday, March 8 2018, 14h15–14.45
Venue: Rossbysalen C609, Arrhenius Laboratory, 6th floor

Sebastian Scher, PhD student at MISU.

Abstract
Wind storms are the leading source of insured losses in Europe and can cause severe social and economic damage. Accurately forecasting both their intensity and position is therefore of crucial importance. We show that ensemble forecasts of extreme European wind storms can be improved by sub-selecting ensemble members based on their performance at very short lead times (up to 12h). This applies to both the ensemble mean position of cyclone centers and the ensemble mean windstorm footprint over the continent. Since ensemble forecasts are typically initialized every 12h and disseminated several hours after initialization, our approach has the potential to provide improved forecasts in an operational context. The analysis is performed on GEFS reforecast data.

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